As 2015 draws to a close, hour by hour, I find myself looking back on 2015. To be sure, it’s been a year where tragedy and bad news has prevailed more than most. But there were also plenty of good, positive, inspiring news stories this year, and as we head into 2016, I think it’s worthwhile to stop and reflect on some of the better things that have happened this year. Let us all head into 2016 with a light heart, a positive outlook, and the perseverance to do good for ourselves, our loved ones, and our neighbors.
JP Smith, who accurately forecast the 1998 Russian stock market crash, says China is in for a bust as bad as the ’08 U.S. mortgage bust, next year. TheStreet.com provides detailed coverage, on the reasoning, state of the Yuan (the Chinese currency), and other market factors. The reason that this is interesting to us is that, if Smith is correct, the Chinese money outflows are likely to accelerate in 2016, and as we’ve reported before, that can have a big impact on the U.S. housing market.
If you’ve been reading this blog for a while, you know that I generally scoff at predictions. Few people are as accurate as Cassandra. Still, with the proper use of data, some predictions can be better than others. Mitch Lipka recently interviewed Svenja Gudell, the new Chief Economist at Zillow. There are no deep, earth-shattering predictions, but the Q&A format of the interview is nice, and it’s always good to hear what a Zillow economist is thinking — it’s definitely a different style than the typical CNBC talking head.
To be fair, the causality might not work in this direction, but if you want to know if you’re in a good market to buy, all you have to do is look at whether Millennials are moving to your town or not. According to RealtyTrac, buying is still more cost effective than renting in the majority (68%) of markets. But since 2007, the regions with the biggest influx of Millennials have had the biggest increase in housing prices — and more importantly, they’ve increase faster than rents in those same towns. So, start studying your Millennial demographics to figure out when to buy and sell.
We reported yesterday on a blog post that the Federal Reserve put out, arguing their case that the rate hike shouldn’t have any impact on long-term, fixed rate mortgages. It turns out, they’re not the only ones who think that. CNBC wrote a similar piece last week. The main difference is, their article is a little less technical; a little easier to read. So, if you didn’t read the Fed blog post, check out this article But the conclusion is the same — long term treasuries are what matter for long-term mortgage rates.